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National Bureau of Economic Research Latest Working Papers during the week of October 01, 2018

The following NBER Working Papers were released in electronic format this week. Abbreviations in parentheses refer to NBER Research Programs. (visit http://www.nber.org/programs for Program information.)

1.  Do Fire Sales Create Externalities? by Sergey Chernenko, Adi Sunderam #25104 (AP CF) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25104?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

2.  Deterring Illegal Entry: Migrant Sanctions and Recidivism in Border Apprehensions by Samuel Bazzi, Sarah Burns, Gordon Hanson, Bryan Roberts, John Whitley #25100 (DEV ITI LS) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25100?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

3.  Corruption, Government Subsidies, and Innovation: Evidence from China by Lily Fang, Josh Lerner, Chaopeng Wu, Qi Zhang #25098 (CF PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25098?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

4.  Unlocking Amenities: Estimating Public-Good Complementarity by David Albouy, Peter Christensen, Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri #25107 (EEE PE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25107?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

5.  Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications by Robert J. Hodrick, Tuomas Tomunen #25092 (AP IFM) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25092?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

6.  Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice by Maarten Meeuwis, Jonathan A. Parker, Antoinette Schoar, Duncan I. Simester #25108 (AG AP CF EFG) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25108?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

7.  Exchange Rates, Local Currency Pricing and International Tax Policies by Sihao Chen, Michael B. Devereux, Jenny Xu, Kang Shi #25111 (IFM) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25111?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

8.  Optimal Law Enforcement with Ordered Leniency by Claudia M. Landeo, Kathryn E. Spier #25095 (LE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25095?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

9.  The Equilibrium Effects of Information Deletion: Evidence from Consumer Credit Markets by Andres Liberman, Christopher Neilson, Luis Opazo, Seth Zimmerman #25097 (CF) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25097?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

10.  Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?  by Shai Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino, Timothy McQuade #25112 (CF DEV PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25112?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

11.  Cross-sectional Skewness by Simon Oh, Jessica A. Wachter #25113 (AP) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25113?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

12.  Unbundling Polarization by Nathan Canen, Chad Kendall, Francesco Trebbi #25110 (POL) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25110?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

13.  Ordered Leniency: An Experimental Study of Law Enforcement with Self-Reporting by Claudia M. Landeo, Kathryn E. Spier #25094 (LE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25094?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

14.  Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models by Laura Liu, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Frank Schorfheide #25102 (EFG ME) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25102?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

15.  Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy by Ricardo Lagos, Shengxing Zhang #25106 (AP EFG ME) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25106?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

16.  Genes, Education, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study by Nicholas W. Papageorge, Kevin Thom #25114 (AG ED LS) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25114?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

17.  Differences in Citation Patterns across Journal Tiers in Economics by Maria Victoria Anauati, Ramiro H. Galvez, Sebastian Galiani #25101 (DEV) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25101?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

18.  Majority Choice of Taxation and Redistribution in a Federation by Stephen Calabrese, Dennis Epple, Richard Romano #25099 (PE POL) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25099?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

19.  Heterogeneous Beliefs and School Choice Mechanisms by Adam Kapor, Christopher A. Neilson, Seth D. Zimmerman #25096 (ED IO) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25096?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

20.  The Effects of Medicaid Expansion on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Border Counties by Lizhong Peng, Xiaohui (Ronnie) Guo, Chad D. Meyerhoefer #25105 (HC HE LS) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25105?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

21.  Publishing and Promotion in Economics: The Tyranny of the Top Five by James J. Heckman, Sidharth Moktan #25093 (LS PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25093?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

22.  How Do Firms Respond To Place-Based Tax Incentives? by Hyejin Ku, Uta Schoenberg, Ragnhild C. Schreiner #25115 (LS PE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25115?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

23.  The Minimum Wage, EITC, and Criminal Recidivism by Amanda Y. Agan, Michael D. Makowsky #25116 (LS)

24.  Robots, Trade, and Luddism: A Sufficient Statistic Approach to Optimal Technology Regulation by Arnaud Costinot, Ivan Werning #25103 (EFG ITI PE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25103?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

25.  Who Votes for Medicaid Expansion? Lessons from Maine’s 2017 Referendum by David A. Matsa, Amalia R. Miller #25109 ( HC PE POL) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25109?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26

26.  Immigrants, Labor Market Dynamics and Adjustment to Shocks in the Euro Area by Gaetano Basso, Francesco D’Amuri, Giovanni Peri #25091 (IFM LS) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w25091?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg26


Courtesy: NBER


Measuring the Effectiveness of Social Protection : Concepts and Applications

World Bank, 2018.


‘Measuring the Effectiveness of Social Protection: Concepts and Applications’ provides the conceptual and analytical framework for assessing social protection (SP) programs, as well as provides a practical guide for users seeking to conduct analysis, particularly using the World Bank’s Software Platform for Automated Economic Analysis (ADePT).

The book provides a comprehensive unique resource to tie together social policy theory, concepts and practical analytical techniques. The book content is targeted at policymakers and practitioners worldwide seeking to improve the outcomes of their social protection policies.

It suggests advanced methods and a new rapid analysis instrumental for technical experts working on quantitative SP analysis for their ministry, national statistics offices, think tanks, universities, or development organizations.

The book aims to equip users with different statistical background and SP knowledge to independently conduct SP analysis and prepare a standardized set of tables and graphs to conduct different types of SP performance analysis, ranging from benchmarking SP performance within and across countries, simulating the performance of alternative reform options, and assessing the viability of proposed programs.

URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29802

Courtesy: World Bank Group


How does family involvement affect a firm’s internationalization? An investigation of Indian family firms

Global Strategy Journal, Volume 8, Issue 1, February 2018
Research Summary: We investigate whether and how family ownership and management influence firms’ internationalization strategies in an emerging economy in which family firms are dominant. Anchoring on the willingness and ability framework and drawing on the socioemotional wealth perspective and agency theory, we theorize how the heterogeneity among family firms in their ownership structures, concentration, and family involvement in management shapes the firms’ internationalization strategies. We also theorize how certain contingencies, such as the presence of foreign institutional ownership and family management, moderate the relationship between family ownership and internationalization strategy. We test our predictions by using a proprietary, longitudinal panel dataset of 303 leading family firms from India and find support for most of our theoretical predictions.
Courtesy: Wiley online library


Manmohan Agarwal

CDS Working Paper no. 473


Developing countries show a predilection for fixed exchange rates even though this prevents monetary autonomy in the presence of capital flows. This paper examines the operation of the gold standard (GS) during the period 1870-1914, its heyday. It discusses the theory of balance of payments adjustment under the GS. Theory postulates automatic and symmetric adjustment by deficit and surplus countries. The paper then analyses the experience with adjustment. It analyses whether central banks followed “the rules of the game”. It finds not only significant
differences between adjustment in the core countries and in the countries in the periphery, but significant differences among the core countries also. We find that countries in the periphery accumulated large reserves to cope with balance of payments deficits just as they today, even though at that time the core countries adopted fixed exchange rates and today they adopt floating exchange rates.
Courtesy: CDS

Family caregiving for older adults: gendered roles and caregiver burden in emigrant households of Kerala, India

Allen Prabhaker Ugargol and Ajay Bailey

Asian Population Studies, 2018

The Indian state of Kerala leads the demographic transition and characteristically showcases emigration of predominantly male adult children, leaving behind parents, spouses and children. When men emigrate, gendered contexts burden women, especially spouses and daughters-in-law, with caregiving duties including elder care. Employing the social exchange perspective and drawing on in-depth interviews of left-behind caregivers to older adults in emigrant households, we explore reciprocal motives, expectations and perceptions of burden. Findings resonate gendered expectations of care and social sanction that ensure women do much of the caregiving. Daughters-in-law sacrificed careers and endured separation from husbands to transition into caregiving roles, costs borne to effectuate their husband’s filial role. Perceived non-reciprocity, unbalanced exchanges and unmet expectations increased perceptions of burden for caregivers. Temporary financial autonomy could hardly alleviate perceptions of burden among women caregivers who perceived emotional and functional support exchanges from husbands, older adults themselves or other family members as supportive.

URL : http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17441730.2017.1412593

Courtesy : T&F

The macroeconomic consequences of remittances

Berrak Bahadir, Santanu Chatterjee, Thomas Lebesmuehlbacher

Journal of International Economics,Volume 111, March 2018

This paper analyzes the dynamic absorption of remittances at the macroeconomic level, contrasting two possible effects on economic activity, depending on whether these accrue to hand-to-mouth wage earners or credit-constrained entrepreneurs. Using an open economy DSGE model with heterogeneous households, we show that the effects of remittances are inherently contractionary if they accrue to the first group, and expansionary when they accrue to the second group. Calibrating the model to the Philippines using both aggregate data as well as micro-evidence from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), we show that accounting for both binding credit constraints and the internal distribution of remittances improves the model’s fit to the data. Welfare gains result when the distribution of remittances is skewed towards entrepreneurs.

URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-international-economics/vol/111/suppl/C

Courtesy: Sciencedirect

National Bureau of Economic Research Latest Working Papers during the week of December 04, 2017

The following NBER Working Papers were released in electronic format this week. Abbreviations in parentheses refer to NBER Research Programs. (visit http://www.nber.org/programs for Program information.)

1.  Urban Revival in America, 2000 to 2010 by Victor Couture, Jessie Handbury #24084 (ITI) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24084?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

2.  House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice by Michael Bailey, Eduardo Davila, Theresa Kuchler, Johannes Stroebel #24091 (AP CF EFG ME PE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24091?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

3.  Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation by Alexander M. Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova, John Van Reenen #24062 (CH EFG LS PE PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24062?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

4.  Endowments, Skill-Biased Technology, and Factor Prices: A Unified Approach to Trade by Peter M. Morrow, Daniel Trefler #24078 (ITI) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24078?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

5.  Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1962 to 2016: Has Middle Class Wealth Recovered? by Edward N. Wolff #24085 (PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24085?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

6.  Shrinking the Cross Section by Serhiy Kozak, Stefan Nagel, Shrihari Santosh #24070 (AP) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24070?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

7.  Leaving Money on the Table? Suboptimal Enrollment in the New Social Pension Program in China by Xi Chen, Lipeng Hu, Jody L. Sindelar #24065 (AG DEV HE PE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24065?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

8.  Brokers and Order Flow Leakage: Evidence from Fire Sales by Andrea Barbon, Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Augustin Landier #24089 (AP) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24089?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

9.  A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks by James Andreoni, Paul Feldman, Charles Sprenger #24075 (PE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24075?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

10.  Who Falls Prey to the Wolf of Wall Street? Investor Participation in Market Manipulation by Christian Leuz, Steffen Meyer, Maximilian Muhn, Eugene Soltes, Andreas Hackethal #24083 (AP CF LE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24083?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

11.  Venture Capital Investments and Merger and Acquisition Activity Around the World by Gordon M. Phillips, Alexei Zhdanov #24082 (CF IO PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24082?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

12.  Household Inequality and the Consumption Response to Aggregate Real Shocks by Gene Amromin, Mariacristina De Nardi, Karl Schulze #24073 (PE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24073?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

13.  Wages and Employment: The Canonical Model Revisited by Audra Bowlus, Eda Bozkurt, Lance Lochner, Chris Robinson #24069 (LS) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24069?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

14.  The L-Shaped Phillips Curve: Theoretical Justification and Empirical Implications by Narayana R. Kocherlakota #24086 (EFG) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24086?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

15.  Wealthier, Happier and More Self-Sufficient: When Anti-Poverty Programs Improve Economic and Subjective Wellbeing at a Reduced Cost to Taxpayers by Titus J. Galama, Robson Morgan, Juan E. Saavedra #24090 (DEV) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24090?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

16.  Why are Banks Exposed to Monetary Policy? by Sebastian Di Tella, Pablo Kurlat #24076 (EFG) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24076?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

17.  A New Index of Debt Sustainability by Olivier J. Blanchard, Mitali Das #24068 (IFM) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24068?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

18.  Job Tasks, Time Allocation, and Wages by Ralph Stinebrickner, Todd R. Stinebrickner, Paul J. Sullivan #24079 (LS) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24079?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

19.  Unhappiness and Pain in Modern America:  A Review Essay, and Further Evidence, on Carol Graham’s  Happiness for All? by David G. Blanchflower, Andrew Oswald #24087 (HE LS) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24087?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

20.  New Evidence of Generational Progress for Mexican Americans by Brian Duncan, Jeffrey Grogger, Ana Sofia Leon, Stephen J. Trejo #24067 (LS) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24067?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

21.  The Impact of Bank Credit on Labor Reallocation and Aggregate Industry Productivity by John (Jianqiu) Bai, Daniel Carvalho, Gordon M. Phillips #24081 (CF IO LS PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24081?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

22.  High Wage Workers Work for High Wage Firms by Katarina Borovickova, Robert Shimer #24074 (EFG LS)

23.  Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective by Aaron B. Flaaen, Matthew D. Shapiro, Isaac Sorkin #24077 (EFG LS ME) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24077?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

24.  Environmental, Social, and Governance Criteria: Why Investors are Paying Attention by Ravi Jagannathan, Ashwin Ravikumar, Marco Sammon #24063 (AP EEE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24063?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

25.  The Long-run Effects of Agricultural Productivity on Conflict, 1400-1900 by Murat Iyigun, Nathan Nunn, Nancy Qian #24066 (DEV POL) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24066?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

26.  U.S. Job Flows and the China Shock by Brian J. Asquith, Sanjana Goswami, David Neumark, Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez #24080 (ITI LS PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24080?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

27.  Spatial Patterns of Development: A Meso Approach by Stelios Michalopoulos, Elias Papaioannou #24088 (DEV EFG POL PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24088?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

28.  The Marginal Product of Climate by Tatyana Deryugina, Solomon Hsiang #24072 (DAE DEV EEE EFG PE)

29.  Credit Default Swaps, Agency Problems, and Management Incentives by Jongsub Lee, Junho Oh, David Yermack #24064 (AP CF LE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/w24064?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw


Courtesy: NBER