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Oil Price–Migration Nexus in India

Oil Price–Migration Nexus in India
Raju John
South Asia Research, Volume 38, Issue 1, February 2018

Given that India is globally the top recipient of migrant remittances and over 90 per cent of Indian worker emigration is to oil-producing nations in the Gulf region, such significant economic relations between the two regions raise concerns that decreasing oil prices may lead to serious negative economic impacts. This article attempts to understand the association between emigration and oil price, assuming that fluctuations in oil price will adversely affect the economic prosperity of oil-producing nations and thus the emigration prospects of a significant section of global migrant workers, including millions of South Asians. Examining the association between changes in oil price and emigration from India more specifically aims to ascertain whether there is a direct correlation, so that reasonable precautions may be made regarding the impact of oil price changes on South Asian worker migrant flows.

URL : http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0262728017745384
Courtesy -Sage Publications


Declining wage share in India’s organized manufacturing sector: Trends, patterns and determinants

Vinoj Abraham and S K Sasikumar
ILO Asia – Pacific Working Paper Series, 2017

Widening income inequality across the world in recent years has emerged as a core concern in development policy discourses. A persistent decline in labour share has been visible in many developed and developing economies since the 1980s, including India. Declining labour share in terms of wages and emoluments portends widening income inequality, demand constriction and slowdown of economic growth.

The study analyses the patterns, trends and determinants of declining labour share in organized manufacturing in India. It undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the trends and patterns in factor payments in the organized manufacturing sector, while long-term trends are explored across dimensions such as states, size classification and industrial classification.

read the full-text here … URL http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—asia/—ro-bangkok/—sro-new_delhi/documents/publication/wcms_614777.pdf

Courtesy – ILO

Labor Policy and Digital Technology Use : Indicative Evidence from Cross-Country Correlations

World Bank, 2017
This paper exploits variation in country-level indicators drawn from published data to analyze the relationship between labor regulation and the use of digital technology. The analysis shows a statistically and economically significant association between digital technology use by firms and a country’s statutory minimum wage and employment protection regulations. The results are robust to the inclusion of controls for level of development, economic stability, available infrastructure, and trade openness. To ensure the broadest country coverage, the paper develops new indexes of employment protection, using the World Bank’s Doing Business indicators, which allow several aspects of labor market regulation—such as restrictions on hours and hiring, dismissal procedures, and severance costs–to be analyzed separately.
Courtesy : World Bank eLibrary

Migrating to Opportunity : Overcoming Barriers to Labor Mobility in Southeast Asia

Mauro Testaverde; Harry Moroz; Claire H Hollweg; Achim Schmillen.

World Bank 2017.

The movement of people in Southeast Asia is an issue of increasing importance. Countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are now the origin of 8 percent of the world’s migrants. These countries host only 4 percent of the world’s migrants but intra-regional migration has turned Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand into regional migration hubs that are home to 6.5 million ASEAN migrants. However, significant international and domestic labor mobility costs limit the ability of workers to change firms, sectors, and geographies in ASEAN.

This report takes an innovative approach to estimate the costs for workers to migrate internationally. Singapore and Malaysia have the lowest international labor mobility costs in ASEAN while workers migrating to Myanmar and Vietnam have the highest costs. Singapore and Malaysia’s more developed migration systems are a key reason for their lower labor mobility costs.

How easily workers can move to take advantage of new opportunities is important in determining how they fare under the increased economic integration planned for ASEAN. To study this question, the report simulates how worker welfare is affected by enhanced trade integration under different scenarios of labor mobility costs. Region-wide, worker welfare would be 14 percent higher if barriers to mobility were reduced for skilled workers, and an additional 29 percent if barriers to mobility were lowered for all workers.

Weaknesses in migration systems increase international labor mobility costs, but policy reforms can help. Destination countries should work toward systems that are responsive to economic needs and consistent with domestic policies. Sending countries should balance protections for migrant workers with the needs of economic development.

url – https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28342/9781464811067.pdf
courtesy – The World Bank

The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme: A Policy Solution to Rural Poverty in India?

Carley-Jane Stanton, Nurmaiya Brady, John Pattison-Williams, E.D. King, Chudhury Mishra, and Brent Swallow
Development Policy Review, Volume 35, Issue 3, May 2017, Pages 397–417 (Open Access)

Abstract: The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) was developed by the Indian government to reduce rural poverty through 100 days of guaranteed employment per year. Using focus group methods, we explore whether this scheme has provided rights’ based social protection through guaranteed employment for Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and women in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Odisha. We found that the experiences of participating in MGNREGA varied depending on how MGNREGA wages compared to market wages in the region, as well as local implementation of the program. Although MGNREGA offered some basic employment for marginalized groups, it did not provide substantial help to the most vulnerable. However, there was some evidence of small but significant shifts in labour relations. Higher wages, more opportunities for work, better implementation and a greater recognition of the caregiving responsibilities of women will be required for this policy to fully meet its goals.

url – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dpr.12220/abstract
courtesy – Wiley

Determinants of workers’ remittances: An empirical investigation for a panel of eleven developing Asian economies Authors

Hrushikesh Mallick
The World Economy, July 2017

We explore the key motives of migrant workers’ remittances from abroad for 11 major Asian migrant-sending countries. Using panel regressions, we find that relative higher growth rate, interest rate and capital market returns of home over the host, investment, financial deepening at home have significant impact on remittance inflows into Asia, along with higher per capita incomes and international crude oil prices. With incorporation of per capita incomes and lagged impact of remittances, we observe an emergence of consumption motives to remit. Therefore, we conclude that both investment and altruistic motives are the driving forces for remittances inflows into the Asian economies.

url – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/twec.12519/full
courtesy – Wiley


International Labour Organization 2016

The World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2016 was prepared jointly by the Job Friendly Macroeconomic Policies Unit (led by Ekkehard Ernst) and the Policy Assessment Unit (led by Steven
Tobin) of the ILO Research Department.

The world economy is estimated to have expanded by 3.1 per cent in 2015, over half a percentage point less than had been projected a year earlier. If current policy responses are maintained, the outlook is for continued economic weakening, posing significant challenges to enterprises and workers. Indeed, over the next two years, the world economy is projected to grow by only around 3 per cent,
significantly less than before the advent of the global crisis.
The continuing slowdown in economic growth is being driven by weakness in emerging and developing countries. China is facing a pronounced slowdown. This, combined with other factors, has contributed to a steep decline in commodity prices, particularly those related to energy. This situation has, in turn, affected large emerging economy commodity exporters, such as Brazil and the Russian Federation, which have entered a period of recession. The benefits accruing to net commodity importers have been insufficient to offset the decline affecting exporters. Another sign of economic weakness is the fact that global trade, which had typically expanded twice as fast as the global economy, is now growing in line with or at a lower rate than global growth.

read more here …
courtesy – ILO